Election Night 2024: A Boglehead’s Perspective on Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Introduction to Election Night 2024

Election nights in the United States are nothing short of dramatic, and 2024 promises to be one of the most memorable ones yet. With Kamala Harris representing the Democratic Party and Donald Trump making his political comeback on the Republican side, investors and everyday Americans alike are bracing for the implications. But while pundits and financial analysts are dissecting every possible scenario, Bogleheads—the faithful followers of Jack Bogle’s investing philosophy—are watching with an entirely different mindset.

The Emotional Rollercoaster of Election Night

Election night brings its fair share of market jitters. From the moment polls start closing on the East Coast to the final counts in the West, the stock market reflects the nation’s nerves. Futures markets swing wildly, headlines scream about “market chaos,” and social media becomes a frenzy of speculation. As results pour in, news anchors debate how each candidate's policies could shape the economy, from corporate taxes and job growth to healthcare and environmental regulations.

For most investors, it's enough to make their heads spin. But if you’re following the Boglehead philosophy, your strategy is simple: stay the course.

What Would Jack Bogle Say?

If Jack Bogle were still with us, his advice would be straightforward. He’d probably remind us that while elections matter to society and to policy, they don’t change the core principles of successful investing. Bogle once said, “The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing.” And there’s no bigger distraction than election night. But here’s the thing: markets have weathered wars, recessions, booms, and busts—and they’ve kept growing over the long term.

How Will a Harris or Trump Victory Affect the Market?

Let’s get down to the specifics. What could a Kamala Harris win mean for the stock market? Democrats tend to focus on policies that impact healthcare, social spending, and green energy. Regulatory approaches may tighten, and sectors like renewable energy and tech might see new opportunities or restrictions based on proposed plans.

On the flip side, a Trump victory could signal deregulation, tax cuts, and a more business-friendly climate. Industries such as oil, defense, and finance might benefit under Trump’s leadership, while other areas, like tech and international trade, might see a different landscape due to his past stances on tariffs and foreign relations.

But while it’s tempting to play the guessing game, Bogleheads know that trying to outguess market reactions is a fool’s errand. Predicting the short-term market response to election outcomes is notoriously unreliable, even for the experts.

The Boglehead Election Night Strategy

1. Stick to Your Plan: Whether Harris or Trump emerges victorious, your investment plan shouldn’t change. Asset allocation, diversification, and low-cost index funds remain your bread and butter. These principles don’t shift with political winds—they’re built to endure them.

2. Tune Out the Noise: Election night coverage will be filled with speculation, projections, and reactions from every angle. Media outlets thrive on urgency and fear, but smart investors know that panicking or making knee-jerk decisions can be costly. Trust that your strategy is built for the long haul, not just the next election cycle.

3. Remember Market Resilience: Historically, the market has always adapted to new political realities. Whether it was the New Deal, the Reagan era, Obama’s recovery act, or Trump’s tax cuts, the market adjusted and moved forward. A balanced portfolio doesn’t need to play politics; it needs to play time.

A Look Back at Election Market Trends

For context, consider recent election cycles. The 2016 election, when Trump shocked the nation with his victory, initially spooked markets, with Dow futures plummeting overnight. But the markets rebounded sharply, setting off a bullish run. In 2020, the uncertainty of a pandemic election saw markets jittery in anticipation of a Biden presidency, only to end up rallying as policy directions became clearer.

The lesson here? The market’s knee-jerk reactions rarely tell the whole story. A measured, long-term approach has consistently outperformed reactionary moves.

Final Thoughts: How to Invest Through Political Change

The truth is, presidents come and go, as do their policies. But the principles of passive investing, as championed by Bogle, remain constant. The U.S. economy is more than one administration—it’s the collective output of millions of companies and workers innovating, producing, and growing over time. Whether you wake up to a President Harris or President Trump on November 6th, 2024, your best move as a Boglehead is to sip your coffee, look at your diversified portfolio, and remind yourself of the wisdom that has stood the test of time:

Stay the course.